Assumptions and Risks

Pipita Scored and Kaka had another good game. Great Signs

‘Assumptions are the mother
of all Fuckups!’ – I once
heard my brother (who’s an associate Regional Director of a Fortune 500
Company) scold one of his subordinates. Filipinos have a similar adage: ‘Maraming Namatay sa Maling Akala’ (Many
have died from the wrong assumptions), I was often told when I was young. Last
night, the wrong assumptions nearly created the Fuck-up that nearly killed us.

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Last night, Real Madrid looked like it was about to
turn its slump into the beginnings of a crisis when seconds into the match, we
had carelessly allowed Rayo Vallecano’s Michu to score the opening goal. The
goal was the culmination of a move which started from a bad pass by Lass –
shades of Roberto Carlos’ error that gifted Roy Makaay and Bayern Munich a
place in the Champions League Quarter Finals some years ago (during THAT epic Capello
season). But while both goals were borne of poor concentration… (sleep walking
to start the match again?) The bigger issue at hand for me was how we seemed to
start last night’s match with what in my opinion was the wrong understanding
(or assumption) of/about Rayo Vallecano.

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Rayo are a newly promoted side and therefore, like
those bottom teams who come to the Bernabeu, they would line themselves up in 2
neat banks for 4, sit deep, park the bus and wait for us… That seemed to be the
assumption that the team started the game with which led to the spectacular
fuck-up that was their first goal: instead of quickly running back to their
side to protect their goal (as what many may have thought), they instead blitzed
us – intercepting Lass’ lazy pass and turning it into a goal. Sigh, if only
they read Guillem Balague’s match preview (who said “Rayo are very brave. I don`t think they`ll drop deep. I
think they`ll pressure high and see what happens.”).

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The team continued to look like a deer caught in the
headlights as Rayo continued their pressing game on our defense: several times
choking the outlet to our midfield: something made worse by the absence of Ricardo
Carvalho, our ball-playing Centerback (all of a sudden, I was missing him!). It
was to be like this for the first 20-30 minutes of the match – and as the boos
and whistles began to come down from the stands of the Bernabeu, that sinking
feeling … and that 6-letter ‘C-Word’ started to creep into my head: Crisis.

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And as many have spoken about Marcelo being Real
Madrid’s weakest defender (despite his clear improvements), no team thus far
has been able to exploit this despite the idea seemingly a solid one on paper.
There are 2 reasons for this: 1.) Madrid’s attacks come mostly from the left
side (using the Marcelo + CR combo), prompting teams to perceive Madrid’s left
flank as a defensive concern rather than an attacking target and 2.) Marcelo’s ‘Dad’:
Ricardo Carvalho. Our Portuguese grand-daddy defender has always looked out for
Marcelo either by covering for the Brazilian himself or marshalling the defense
or defensive midfield to provide him with cover. Last night, with guts and
without Carvalho, Rayo Vallecano became the first team that capitalized on
Marcelo’s defensive frailties: attacking Madrid through Marcelo’s flank and
managing to find inroads into our defense.

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Rotations

I do not come from the school of thinking that
criticizes squad rotation. In fact, given the depth of our squad, I’m all for
it. Squad rotation keeps the morale of the players for the entire squad up and
it also equally distributes the fatigue factor amongst the players. For this
reason, I am not inclined to jump onto the shortcut conclusion that the reason
for our early struggles was Mourinho’s decision to rotate his squad. The
defense, though missing Carvalho, looked ok to me: I though Albiol (who finally
got a game!) and Varane looked good. Ditto for Ramos at RB too. Lass played
instead of Khedira as Alonso’s midfield partner, presumably to rest the German
for Tuesday’s Ajax game while Kaka, who is beginning to show signs of life got
the nod to start. This might actually be the season where Mourinho finally gets
to recover Kaka. The Brazilian’s confidence is starting to come back: the hesitation
to ‘turn the jets on’ is no longer there and the performances are becoming more
and more consistently positive. Mourinho has after all, revealed to the press
about speaking to Ozil about our google-eyed playmaker’s dip in form the last 2
games. We’re up for a healthy dose of in-squad competition for places here: and
with both men being generally nice guys, I genuinely think this competition
should remain healthy.

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Mourinho’s Move: Realization
or Risk?

Mourinho's Response to going down 0-1 while being put on the back foot was to play a 4-1-4-1 with Kaka and Ozil as 'twin playmakers'. With the 2 on the pitch both playing their favored positions, our counter attacks became murderous.

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It was on the 28^th minute when Mourinho
made his bold move: replacing Lass with Ozil: and converting team shape from a
4-2-3-1 with 2 pivots (Xabi Alonso + Lass) and a single ‘10’ (Kaka) into a
4-1-4-1 with a single pivot (Alonso) and 2 ‘10s’ (Kaka and Ozil). I have 2
theories as to what Mourinho was thinking here:

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1.) ‘Fuck
it! I NEED to win, let’s attack, gain the lead, then ‘close shop’ later on to
kill the match’ or…

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2.)‘These
guys (Rayo) are actually attacking us! Hey! That’s a good thing! Let’s provoke
them into coming more at us and murder them with our favorite weapon: our blitzkrieg
counter-atttack!’

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Whatever it was the prompted Mourinho to make his
first half gamble. It worked out brilliantly for us. His post-match statements
would reveal he was probably thinking the former (1. above) when he made his
decision to play with a  4-1-4-1:

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“It hurt to replace Lass, but
the team needed it….
Things get even harder when you're losing 1-0 as
soon as the game starts, but character shines through in difficult situations
and the team reacted. We had 20 to 25 difficult minutes on the pitch, but we
changed, took risks, reacted
well and took the lead by half-time.”

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A tale of 2 10s

Benzema's Goal was Vintage Ozil. 

"Kaka and Ozil played closer to the goal…We didn't have
a true number '10' on the pitch, but there were three excellent playmakers out
there… We started pulling off more efforts. It's a shame I had to replace Kaka
when we were down to ten men because he was giving a very good performance… Kaka
and Ozil have to be prepared both physically and mentally to adapt to play
closer to midfield. It isn't easy for them to do this for 90 minutes. It's risky… They have to be fit
and aware that Xabi Alonso can't play alone in midfield for 90 minutes. They
both responded very well. They created ball movement and covered Rayo's exits.
They played well. It was a situation
of risk but they transformed it into a positive scenario for the
team."

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Mourinho’s statements above pretty much explains every
clearly the on-the-fly adjustments he made to fit his 2 10s, Kaka and Ozil onto
the pitch while:

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1.) Ensuring
that they didn’t get into each other’s way

2.) Ensuring
that Xabi Alonso wouldn’t be shipwrecked on his own at the CM position. (Apart
from the help given to him by Kaka and Ozil, the defenders also did superbly to
help Xabi Alonso out).

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Kaka and Ozil are both 10s – just different types.
Though both are technically impeccable players, they represent 2 contrasting
types of ‘fantasistas’. Kaka’s primary weapon is his verticality: a deadly dose
of acceleration directness. In Milan, he murdered defenses regularly with these
2 weapons as their explosive counter attacks caught opposing defenses
back-pedaling. His final ball wasn’t bad, but Kaka also had a nasty long range
curling shot that killed many a goalkeeper. These qualities were best
demonstrated in 2 instances: first when he switched his afterburners on and
found Ronaldo with a great pass to make it 1-1 and another in the second half
where his run into the box forced a Rayo defender into conceding a penalty.

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Ozil on the other hand, while gifted with a good dose
of pace, isn’t blessed with Kaka’s ability to explode and accelerate. What Ozil
lacks in explosive vertical foot speed with or without the ball (compared to
Kaka) however, he makes up with his close-quarter dribbling and ball-control
abilities that can allow him to maneuver out of tight spaces when swarmed with
defenders (moreso than Kaka) – he’s made quite a few players look like idiots
with this skill too. And while he too can fire a nasty shot from distance, they
also aren’t quite like the heat-seeking missiles we’ve seen the best Kaka fire.
This of course is not his primary weapon, his weapon of choice of course is his
Guti-esque ability to pick out lethal defense-piercing passes to his teammates
(as we saw in his exquisite pass for Benzema’s goal). Ozil also has more
qualities of an all-around midfielder as his passing game isn’t just for the
final ball but also for build-up play.

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I suppose that the best analogy I can think of is for
Basketball: where Kaka is more like a player suited to a fast-breaking
run-and-gun style with his burst of pace, passing skills on the break and
finishing, Ozil is more adaptable to a slower game where his knack for
providing the killer pass in a crowd. In that sense – the 2 men are capable of
complementing each other. It is merely a matter of selecting an overall
tactical scheme that can allow for their respective abilities to thrive and
safeguard the overall solidity of the team. We’ve seen Mourinho try them both out
in a 4-2-3-1 system with 1 of the 2 playing in the wings: suitable to neither
to the 2. Last night was the first time we saw them working together AT THE
CENTER – the result however was wonderful to watch. Before we get euphoric over
this possibility however, we must all remind ourselves that it’s unlikely
Mourinho will play with this system from start to finish given the risks
that  he himself has talked about.

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Scoring from Deadball
Situations

I've seen forwards make heel flicks to score goals but not 191cm. 18 Year Old CBs... until last night!

Since Cristiano arrived at Real Madrid, we’ve only
learned to score from Free Kicks one way: from his Free Kicks. It was thus
refreshing to see Ronaldo finally relent to Xabi Alonso to do things
differently, allowing our Basque Pass Master to deliver a tasty ball for Ramos
to knock into the goal. It was Pipita who managed to poach the goal as Ramos
was barely allowed to make contact with the ball by his Marker. The set piece
goal of the night had to come from Raphael Varane though: who executed a heel
flick from an Ozil corner to put it past Gimenez. What a goal! Impressive with
his defensive duties vs. Racing, he showed us another dimension to his game
last night: becoming a constant aerial threat in set pieces even before his
goal. At age 18, and with his projected growth level: Did Real Madrid manage to
finally manage find a CB that can be a fixture for us for more than a decade?

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Before last night’s victory, we’ve only managed 1 goal
from our last 3 games (Dinamo, Levante & Racing) and a total for 4 points. Last
night was 3 points and 6 goals on the board for us.

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Let’s hope that last night’s victory has allowed the
team to finally re-discover their mojo: because the season is young and there
are many more assumptions to make and risks to take.